The problem
Who says so?
What will happen if we don't bother?
What to do!
THE PROBLEM
The ability of some gases to retain heat is very important in way the atmosphere works. These gases allow the sun’s rays to pass through the atmosphere and warm the earth and reduce heat from being radiated back into space. The gases act like the glass in a greenhouse - letting through the sun’s rays and then holding in the heat. That's why this is called the greenhouse effect.
The gases that do this retaining of heat are called the greenhouse gases. The most important one is carbon dioxide. There are other gases in the atmosphere which are far better at retaining heat but are present in far smaller amounts; methane retains 25 times as much heat as carbon dioxide; nitrous oxide 320 times as much.
It is important to remember that the greenhouse effect is not a bad thing in itself - if we didn't have the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere the earth would be as cold as the moon. They are like a blanket that keeps us warm and it makes life possible.
Our industrialised economy is based on burning oil, gas or coal - called fossil fuels. We can't see most of these fires, but just imagine every car on the motorway as a roaring fire, every electricity power station as a huge inferno. We all contribute to this through our carbon intensive lifestyle; our home heating, our food miles, our cars and our air travel.
Some quick examples:
- Buying exotic green beans in supermarkets flown by air from Africa
- Spend hours sitting in traffic jams
- Building heated conservatories
- Flying huge distances for a couple of weeks in the sun
Every time we burn oil, gas or coal, these fuels produce more waste carbon dioxide - about 8 billion tons a year in fact. Burning also produces nitrous oxide -- another more powerful greenhouse gas.
We are also dumping new gases in the atmosphere.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are used in refrigerators and, although they are present in tiny quantities relative to carbon dioxide they are 9,000 times more powerful at retaining heat (which is what makes them so good for refrigeration in the first place!)
The build-up in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases will mean that far more of the sun's energy is retained and the climate will become unbalanced. As the climate re-balances it will change - climate change.
Computer predictions estimate global temperature will increase over the next 100 years, across the world, by up to 6°C. Scientists know of no time when temperatures have risen faster. Beyond a 2°C increase scientists find it hard to make reliable predictions of the actual effects in the weather.
In the next fifty years we will see ever increasing extremes of weather; more storms, floods and droughts. The natural world will not be able to adjust fast enough. By 2050 climate change will have directly led to the extinction of 30% of species, the death of 90% of coral reefs and the loss of half the Amazon rainforest.
It is absolute scientific fact that the changes we are making to the concentrations of different gases will affect the way the atmosphere behaves. The only area of debate is how serious the impacts are likely to be.
WHO SAYS SO
Over 2,000 scientists are directly working with the United Nations to study this problem and its impacts. This is one of the largest mobilisations of scientific effort ever undertaken.
All the scientists agree that we have a huge problem:
- 1990
Richard Pagett warned in his seminal book Undersea World of potential flooding, due to climate change, of low-lying countries such as Bangladesh (perhaps creating up to 17 million environmental refugees by 2050)
- 1997
3,000 scientists signed a Statement on Climatic Disruption
- 1997
1,500 scientists (including 110 Nobel Prize winners) signed a letter to US President Clinton calling for immediate action
- 1999
35,000 scientists in the US Geophysical Union adopted a position calling for action
- 2001
The national scientific academies of 17 nations including the UK Royal Society signed a statement calling for action
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF WE DON'T BOTHER
Beyond 2050 we face the acceleration of climate change. Carbon and methane stored in soils and oceans will start to leak into the air and the natural processes in forests and oceans that remove carbon dioxide from the air will break down.
This is not some vague, future threat. All around the world rapid changes in the weather are already happening.
- The 12 months up to March 2001 were the wettest in Britain since records began in 1730. Scientists argue that it was the wettest in at least 500 years
- The US winter of 1999-2000 was the mildest since records began
- The US winter of 2000-2001 was the coldest since records began
- Mozambique in 2000 had the worst floods in 50 years displacing 100,000 people
- Northwest India in 2000 had the worst drought in 100 years
If we don’t bother, it will simply become worse and worse and…
WHAT TO DO
- Turn off lights when not in room
- Turn down home heating
- Turn off the PC at weekends
- Buy locally-grown food
- Grow some of our own vegetables
- Buy in-season vegetables and flowers
- Use tap water instead of bought mineral water
- Set up your own garden compost heap
- Re-use materials as much as possible
- Use re-useable nappies
- Not drive everywhere in the village
- Use a bicycle more often
- Buy a new car less frequently
- Buy a second-hand car instead of a new one
- Fly abroad less frequently for holidays
- Sit inside the pub on a cold day
- Alert your family, friends, neighbours about what they could do
